Home values have now fallen in real terms for 13 straight months once inflation is factored in, even though the official S&P Cotality Case-Shiller National Home Price Index still shows prices technically rising, according to S&P Global’s August 25 release of June 2026 data. The national index posted a 1.5% annual gain, but June’s inflation rate ran at 3.5%, meaning homeowners are losing roughly two percentage points of purchasing power even as the headline number reads positive.
Key Numbers
- National index: +1.5% year-over-year, up from May’s 1.2% gain
- 10-City Composite: +2.9% year-over-year
- 20-City Composite: +2.1% year-over-year
- June inflation rate: 3.5%, outpacing the national price gain by roughly 2 points
- Real home values: down for a 13th consecutive month
Nominal Gains, Real Losses
The distinction driving this story is the difference between nominal and real price growth. Nominal prices are the raw dollar figures reported in the index, the number that shows up in headlines and on a Zestimate. Real prices adjust that figure for inflation, measuring whether a home’s value is actually growing faster than the general cost of everything else. When inflation runs hotter than home price appreciation, as it has for 13 straight months per the S&P data, a home technically “worth more” in dollar terms is quietly losing ground against the broader economy. A homeowner who sells today and buys an equivalent replacement effectively has less real buying power than a year ago.
Chicago Leads, Seattle Lags
The gap between regional markets widened further in June. Chicago posted the strongest annual gain among tracked metros at 6.9%, followed by New York at 4.8%, according to the same S&P release. Seattle recorded the weakest performance at -2.0% annually, with Las Vegas close behind at -1.9% and Denver at -1.2%. That’s nearly a nine-percentage-point spread between the strongest and weakest major markets in a single month, a divergence the report ties to Midwest and Northeast markets outperforming Western and Sunbelt cities that saw heavier price run-ups earlier in the pandemic-era boom.
Why This Matters for Buyers and Owners
For current homeowners, a prolonged stretch of negative real appreciation means the equity cushion built up in recent years is eroding in relative terms, even without a nominal price drop. For prospective buyers, it can be a mixed signal: nominal prices are still climbing in most of the 20 tracked metros, so affordability isn’t necessarily improving just because inflation is outrunning the index. The 13-month streak also underscores how uneven the national housing recovery has become, with a handful of Midwest and Northeast metros propping up an otherwise flat-to-negative real-price environment nationally.
