Fourteen percent. That’s the jump in existing-home sales the National Association of Realtors projected for 2026 when its chief economist Lawrence Yun stood up at the group’s annual forecast summit in November 2025 and called it “the year that we will see a measurable increase in sales,” according to NAR’s own forecast announcement. The number mattered because the market had been stuck: existing-home sales had hovered around 4.1 million annually since 2023, the slowest sustained stretch in more than a decade, and NAR was calling that stretch over. Nine months later, the real story is more complicated than the headline number, but the underlying case for a turnaround hasn’t disappeared.
Why NAR Called for 14% in the First Place
Yun’s original case rested on three legs: mortgage rates easing toward roughly 6%, steady job creation, and a housing market he described as having reached a floor after years of buyers sitting out. NAR’s own release paired the sales forecast with a comparatively modest 4% home-price growth projection, meaning the group wasn’t betting on a price spike, just on sidelined buyers finally transacting after two years of record-low turnover. That distinction mattered. A market where more people buy and sell without prices running away is close to the soft landing economists have been describing for years.
The Forecast Got a Reality Check
It didn’t play out that cleanly. By spring 2026, mortgage rates that had briefly dipped under 6% climbed back toward 6.5%, partly on global economic pressure tied to an oil price spike. Job growth projections cooled at the same time. Yun revised his full-year sales forecast down from 14% to roughly 4%, and reporting on the updated outlook described him characterizing the first half of the year as a disappointment, even while stopping short of forecasting an actual downturn. The revised figure is a lower bar than the original call, but it would still mark the first real growth after three straight years of essentially flat sales.
What’s Actually Happening on the Ground
NAR’s own existing-home sales data through mid-2026 shows why Yun didn’t abandon the recovery story entirely. Year-to-date sales were running about 2.4% ahead of the same point in 2025, even after a monthly dip. Yun described conditions as “remarkably stable” and said the market “would be thriving if average mortgage rates were to return near 6%” — in other words, the demand is there, and rates are the single variable holding it back. The national median existing-home price sat at $431,400, with roughly 4.6 months of supply on the market, a level that’s still tighter than the 5 to 6 months economists generally consider balanced between buyers and sellers. Regionally, the picture wasn’t uniform either — NAR’s data pointed to gains in the Midwest and West while the Northeast and South stayed essentially flat, a reminder that any national forecast, whether it’s 14% or 4%, tends to smooth over very different local realities.
What This Means If You’re Buying or Selling
The practical takeaway for anyone watching the market isn’t the specific percentage NAR lands on by December. It’s that the multi-year freeze in transaction volume — homeowners locked into low pandemic-era rates and unwilling to sell into a higher-rate market — is showing its first real cracks. A 2.4% year-to-date increase is nowhere near the initial 14% call, but it’s the first positive year-over-year growth NAR’s own data has shown in this cycle. For buyers, that means slightly more inventory turning over than in 2024 or 2025, though not a flood. For sellers who’ve been waiting out the market, it suggests conditions are trending toward “more likely to sell,” not less, even if mortgage rates haven’t cooperated as fast as forecasters hoped. And because home-price growth is still projected in the modest 3-4% range rather than a sharp spike, buyers re-entering the market aren’t necessarily walking into a bidding war — they’re walking into a market that’s slowly loosening rather than one that’s about to overheat.
The Number That Actually Matters
Mortgage rates are doing more to shape this market than any single forecast. NAR’s own economists have said as much twice now — once when they bet big on rates easing, and again when they had to walk that bet back. What hasn’t changed is the diagnosis: pent-up demand exists, prices aren’t at risk of falling, and the market’s two-year stall is a rate problem more than a demand problem. Whether 2026 ends up closer to NAR’s bold call or its revised one, the direction is the same, just the speed is in question.