Home shoppers who spent the last few years getting outbid, ghosted, or told to waive every contingency just to get a showing are running into a different kind of market this fall. Fresh data from Redfin shows new listings just hit their highest level since April, even as the number of buyers actually signing contracts slipped to a level not seen since February. For people who’ve felt locked out since 2021, that combination is starting to look like leverage.
More Homes, Fewer Bidders
Seasonally adjusted new listings reached 376,235 in the four weeks ending August 23, according to Redfin’s weekly housing market update, up 6% from a year earlier and the strongest reading since spring. Active inventory climbed to just over 1.5 million homes, a 1.6% year-over-year increase, pushing the market to 3.8 months of supply.
Demand didn’t keep pace. Pending home sales fell to 307,830, down 3.1% from last year and the lowest count since February, while mortgage purchase applications dropped 5% year-over-year for the week ending August 21. Sellers noticed. Redfin found that 20.8% of listings had a price cut, and the typical home is now sitting on the market for 44 days before going under contract.
What a Softer Market Actually Buys You
Sellers still have some cushion. Redfin’s data shows 26.3% of homes sold above their list price and the average sale-to-list ratio ticked up to 98.8%, so this isn’t a full reversal of the last few years’ seller-friendly conditions. But the median asking price was flat year-over-year at $394,353, and the typical monthly mortgage payment buyers signed up for was $2,600 at a 6.65% rate — a much smaller jump than the double-digit payment increases buyers absorbed in 2022 and 2023.
Rates haven’t cooperated since that snapshot was taken. Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed average at 6.76% as of September 10, up from 6.71% the week before. That’s the piece agents say buyers most often overlook: a rate increase of even a quarter point can add real money to a monthly payment, even while list prices sit still and sellers grow more willing to talk.
For someone shopping this fall, the practical shift is less about huge price cuts and more about options. More inventory means less competition for any single listing, longer time to negotiate repairs or closing costs, and sellers who’ve watched their home sit for over a month becoming noticeably more flexible on price. It’s not a buyer’s market in the way the headlines sometimes suggest. It’s closer to a market where, for the first time in years, asking isn’t the same as accepting.
Buyers who’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for a sign that the standoff was easing now have one, even if it’s a modest one. Whether it holds through the rest of the year likely depends on where mortgage rates settle next.
