The Old Farmer’s Almanac has released its region-by-region outlook for fall 2026, and it points to one clear pattern: the country’s coasts will feel autumn arrive on schedule while its interior, especially southern Texas, keeps running the air conditioner well past Labor Day.
According to the Almanac’s own fall forecast, most of the Northeast, the Atlantic Corridor, the Appalachians, the Southeast, the Pacific Northwest and the Lower Great Lakes should see below-normal temperatures this fall, with the Almanac’s editors describing a broader “warm interior and cooler coasts” setup for the season, as AOL’s coverage of the forecast noted. Much of the Northern Plains, the Heartland and the Deep South are expected to run warmer than average through the early weeks of autumn before eventually cooling off in October.
Southern Texas stands apart from even that group. The Almanac’s forecast states the region “should remain warmer than average in both September and October, with slightly above-average precipitation” — meaning it won’t get the typical two-month cooldown other warm regions see, according to Fox Weather’s reporting on the outlook. The Desert Southwest follows a similar path, running warmer than average in September before easing only slightly in October.
Precipitation is expected to run generally dry across much of the country this fall, with the West, the Rockies, Texas, Florida and the Northeast picked out as the regions most likely to see above-normal rainfall. The Atlantic Corridor, the Appalachians, the Southeast and the High Plains are forecast to stay drier than average, and Florida — despite the added rain — is expected to run cooler than normal overall this season.
What the Forecast Means for Fall To-Do Lists
For homeowners in the warm-interior belt, that means resisting the urge to rush outdoor projects tied to cooler weather. A few practical adjustments:
- In southern Texas and the Desert Southwest, hold off on planting cool-season grass seed or fall bulbs until soil temperatures actually drop — seeding into still-warm ground wastes both water and seed.
- Delay winterizing sprinkler systems and outdoor spigots in regions expected to stay warm through October; an early shutoff can leave landscaping under-watered during a longer-than-usual dry, warm stretch.
- In the Northeast, Appalachians and Pacific Northwest, where cooler weather is arriving closer to schedule, this is a good window to clean gutters, service the furnace and get storm windows in place before the first real cold snap.
- Homeowners in the drier-than-average Southeast and High Plains should keep an eye on landscaping and mulch beds for fire-prone dryness even as temperatures fall, since low rainfall doesn’t disappear just because leaves start turning.
The Almanac has published long-range seasonal outlooks for more than two centuries using a proprietary formula based on solar activity, weather patterns and climatology, and its forecasts are best treated as a general regional guide rather than a day-specific prediction. Still, for anyone mapping out fall home and yard projects, knowing which regions are likely to stay stubbornly warm — and which are on track for an on-time autumn — is useful enough to plan around.
