Existing-home sales fell 1.7% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million, even as the median sale price climbed to $434,100 — the 37th consecutive month of annual price gains — according to the National Association of Realtors’ July 2026 existing-home sales report.
Key Points
- Sales dropped 1.7% month-over-month but were still up 0.7% year-over-year.
- Median existing-home price: $434,100, up 2.0% from a year earlier.
- Housing inventory fell 1.9% to 1.54 million units, representing a 4.6-month supply at the current sales pace.
- Homes stayed on the market a median of 29 days, up from 28 days the prior month.
- The average 30-year mortgage rate during the reporting period was 6.54%.
What the Regional Numbers Show
- Northeast: sales up 2.0% month-over-month; median price $563,800, up 5.2% year-over-year.
- Midwest: sales down 2.0% month-over-month but up 2.1% year-over-year; median price $342,900.
- South: sales down 3.1% month-over-month; median price $371,700, up just 0.9% year-over-year.
- West: sales flat month-over-month but up 1.4% year-over-year; median price $622,200.
NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said in the association’s own release that “home sales have remained stable despite recent mortgage rate increases,” pointing out that year-to-date sales are still up 2.4% and that stronger growth is possible “if rates returned toward 6%.” Yun also flagged how far affordability now varies by geography, noting that in smaller Midwest markets a household earning around $60,000 a year can still afford a median-priced home — a bar that’s out of reach in most of the Northeast and West at current prices.
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers
The combination of a 4.6-month supply, prices still rising annually, and homes sitting on the market a day longer than the month before is the kind of mixed signal that makes fall 2026 hard to call for either side of a transaction. A 4.6-month supply is closer to balanced than the deeply seller-favored markets of a few years ago, but it’s still short of the 5-to-6-month range that typically favors buyers on price. Meanwhile, first-time buyers made up 29% of July sales, cash buyers 26%, and investors or second-home buyers 14% — a mix that suggests move-up buyers with existing home equity, rather than first-timers competing purely on financing, are driving a larger share of this fall’s activity.
Whether that tips toward buyers or sellers this fall likely comes down to mortgage rates more than anything else in the report. With the 30-year average sitting at 6.54%, a meaningful drop toward 6% — the scenario Yun described as the trigger for stronger growth — could pull hesitant buyers back into a market that currently has more room to negotiate than it has in years, while a rate that holds steady or climbs further would likely keep the current standoff between cautious buyers and price-anchored sellers in place through the end of the year.
