NOAA has lowered the odds of an active 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, putting the chance of an above-normal season at just 5% in its updated outlook released August 6, 2026. Forecasters still expect 7 to 13 named storms and 2 to 6 hurricanes before the season ends, and they’re telling homeowners along the coast not to let the calmer forecast change their preparation plans.
Key Points
- NOAA now puts the odds at 75% for a below-normal season, 20% for near-normal, and just 5% for above-normal — a sharp lean toward a quiet year.
- The updated range calls for 7 to 13 named storms, 2 to 6 hurricanes, and 0 to 2 major hurricanes, down from the wider ranges issued earlier in the year.
- A typical Atlantic season averages 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, so even the top of NOAA’s revised range falls short of normal.
- Two named storms, Arthur and Bertha, had already formed by the outlook’s release date, with no hurricanes yet recorded this season.
- The suppressed activity is being driven by developing El Niño conditions, which increase wind shear across the Atlantic basin and make it harder for storms to organize and strengthen.
What’s Included in the Updated Outlook
- Named storms: 7–13 total for the season, counting the two already recorded.
- Hurricanes: 2–6, meaning as few as two named storms may ever reach hurricane strength.
- Major hurricanes (Category 3+): 0–2, a range that includes the possibility of none at all.
- Peak timing: The revised numbers cover the remainder of the season through its traditional peak in late August through October.
NOAA officials are pairing the lower numbers with a pointed reminder that low odds are not the same as no risk. “Inland rainfall is a major cause of damage from tropical storms and hurricanes, as Arthur demonstrated,” said National Weather Service Director Ken Graham, pointing to flooding damage that doesn’t require a storm to ever reach hurricane strength. Matt Rosencrans, the outlook’s lead forecaster, added that “when El Niño emerges, it usually becomes the dominant factor in total hurricane season activity” — the reason this year’s numbers dropped from earlier projections.
What Homeowners Should Do
- Don’t skip storm prep because the odds look favorable. A below-normal season can still produce one landfalling storm that matters more to your street than a dozen that stay offshore.
- Review your homeowners and flood insurance now, before a storm is named and coverage windows start closing.
- Clear gutters and trim trees near the house, since wind-driven limbs and clogged drainage cause a disproportionate share of storm damage even in weaker systems.
- Restock a basic emergency kit — water, batteries, a portable charger, and a few days of nonperishable food — regardless of how quiet the season looks on paper.
- Watch inland flood risk, not just wind forecasts. Graham’s comment about Arthur is a direct warning that rainfall, not category strength, has driven recent damage.
A 5% chance of an active season is about as reassuring as hurricane forecasting gets, but NOAA’s own numbers still leave room for up to six hurricanes and two major ones. The agency’s message isn’t that coastal homeowners can relax — it’s that the storms most likely to matter this year may be the quieter, wetter kind that don’t need to reach hurricane strength to flood a street.
